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 Chávez' war hypothesis

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Nombre de messages : 1737
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Date d'inscription : 01/06/2005

Chávez' war hypothesis Empty
14082006
MessageChávez' war hypothesis

Caracas, viernes 11 de agosto, 2006
Nacional y Política


Chávez' war hypothesis

Conflict has two ends. First, install a multipolar world to prevent the US unipolar plans from taking shape. Second, encourage the Venezuelan and regional socialist anti-imperialist revolution

ALBERTO GARRIDO
SPECIAL FOR EL UNIVERSAL

Since the very moment he decided to take power, Hugo Chávez envisaged a war confrontation in two fronts, as the ultimate hypothesis of his revolutionary process. A first front is the United States -seen as the strategic enemy to defeat. On the other front, there are the US foreign and domestic allies.

During his long conversations with Agustín Blanco Muñoz (Habla el Comandante (The Commander Speaks), UCV, Caracas, 1998), Chávez speaks clearly about his war view of politics. "We talk about both political fight and political war, meaning the war or military combat we were in which we were engaged in the past. Now we are engaged in a political war; this is another form of war, but we do not know whether we will be engaged in war again in the future" (op.cit., pp. 344-345).

Such an intermittent war has two ends: a) install a multipolar world to prevent to US unipolar plans from taking shape; and b) encourage socialist anti-imperialist revolution both in Venezuela and the hemisphere.

In this war, the foreign enemy can have domestic allies. Chávez reminded Blanco Muñoz that it was precisely what happened in Chile under Salvador Allende (Ibiden, p. 605).

That was Chávez' stance in July, 1992. While in Yare prison, he wrote: "Further, building up of transforming forces is starting targeted on a single direction: the escalation of conflict and triggering of a fratricide yet fair and legitimate civil war" (read Hugo Chávez, Terrorismo de Estado y Guerra Civil (State Terrorism and Civil War), en Alberto Garrido, De la Guerrilla al Militarismo, (From Guerrillas to Militarism) Ediciones del Autor, Mérida, 2.000, p.73).

With Chávez in power, Raúl Baduel, his travel companion since they founded their political organization MBR200 and Chávez' current Defense minister, has systematically organized the war hypotheses Chávez outlined.

Baduel's hypothesis
Journalist and director of Ultimas Noticias newspaper Eleazar Díaz Rangel summarizes Baduel's war hypotheses as follows:

"1) Fourth generation war, with a likely asymmetric confrontation; 2) Destabilization and dismantling of the country through a coup d'etat, subversion or actions by separatist groups; 3) Regional conflict likely arising from domestic violence in Colombia -where the US participation goes beyond Plan Colombia- and the use of the excuse that Venezuela is encouraging violence in Colombia and take this as a "casus bellis," thus paving the way for intervention in Venezuela; and 4) Direct US invasion of Venezuela, which cannot be ruled out given US policies, particularly in the Near East."

In this way, war hypotheses (Chávez-Baduel) can be divided into two major categories: a) International war -either of high intensity (direct US invasion) or middle intensity (war confrontation in the context of the Colombia-Andean Plan); and b) Low intensity domestic war (regional separatist movement in Zulia state, street violence, destabilization).

The Joint Chiefs of Staff are dealing with the concept of all-out war (both domestic and foreign) in different fronts (a direct connection with the conflict in the Middle East, alleged links with Colombian guerrillas in order to get Venezuela involved in the war of the Colombia-Andean Plan, clashes with destabilizing or separatist groups in Venezuela).

Further, in his hypotheses, Baduel incorporates the oil-related war -which marks the present time in world history. This would involve a likely disruption of Venezuelan oil supply to the United States "in the event of a foreign aggression," just like both Chávez and his Energy and Petroleum minister Rafael Ramírez have warned.

For the US, protecting traditional oil supplies is part of the country's national security policy, and it is a top priority among the hypotheses of intervention of the US Southern Command in Latin America and the Caribbean (Tom Barry, Nuevas Prioridades para el Comando Sur (New Priorities for the Southern Command), Americas Program, IRC, July 05, 2005).

Foreign wars
Because of the world geopolitical dynamics, the most likely yet unpredictable in time war hypothesis is the extension of the Middle East war, rather than the spreading of the Colombian conflict throughout the region -which requires both the implementation of the Patriot Plan at the Ecuadorian north border and the realignment of the regional political-military axis.

The Bolivarian revolution's strategic alliance with Iran and the Muslim world brings a about a question: how big is Chávez commitment to Ahmadinejad and the Muslim world in the event that a war involving the Persian nation breaks up?. In such a scenario, the United States, besides Israel, would take part in the Middle East. Washington, through State Secretary Condoleezza Rice, has said it intends to create a "new map" in that region.

Chávez has condemned Israel for its excessive military response following the kidnap of two Hebrew soldiers by Hezbollah. Caracas recalled the Venezuelan Chargé d'Affaires from Tel Aviv and accused Washington of encouraging war in Palestine and Lebanon. Concomitantly, in Mali Chávez proposed "an integration plan to face this imperialist, neoliberal and outraging time."

However, the real threat for the US is the disruption of Venezuela oil supply, which amounts to 15 percent of US oil imports. This aspect could be at the center of the Venezuela-Iran anti-US strategic pact. Energy and Petroleum minister Rafael Ramírez said in Tehran: "if the US wants to wage a hostile policy against us, we will stop selling oil to that country. If Iran was under attack, they would certainly act like us."

Similarly, Iran and Venezuela have proposed changing the oil financial value from US dollars to euros. This move could prove lethal for the US currency and economy, with the resulting impact on the world economy.

However, Ramírez did not clarify whether such action -disruption of oil supply to the US- would come simultaneously -in the framework of the strategic alliance with Iran- or would be taken individually. This is the biggest challenge the alliance will have to face if the Middle East conflict (including the nuclear issue) openly involves Iran, as some 7 million bpd of oil would be out of the market.

The Persian head of State has warned against a "Islamic explosion" that "would not be restricted to geographic borders, but would also hit those who created Israel in the last 60 years." In order to clear up any doubt on what are the "creators" he was referring to, Ahmadinejad said "Great Britain and the United States are accomplices of the Zionist regime in its crimes against Lebanon and Palestine" (AP, 07/23/2006).

Translated by Maryflor Suárez R.


http://english.eluniversal.com/2006/08/11/en_pol_art_11A763733.shtml
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