BBC NEWS
Crisis in Middle East: Glimmer of hope for diplomacy

By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs Correspondent, BBC News website

The first glimmerings of a way out of the Middle East crisis are emerging as Israel's intentions become clearer and the outside world mobilises to exert an influence.

It could all lead nowhere given the heights of emotion that have been stirred up, and miscalculations might take place.

The key to it, in the view of Western officials, is the phrase in the statement issued by the G8 meeting in St Petersburg on Sunday. This said that "extremist elements and those that support them cannot be allowed to plunge the Middle East into chaos".

This was a reference to Hezbollah and to the two countries that support it, Syria and Iran.

The way to a restoration of peace, therefore, might lie through the door to Damascus. The aim would be to get some arrangement under which Hezbollah is restrained in southern Lebanon, thereby allowing the Israelis to stop their campaign. It is not possible to rely on the Lebanese government to deploy the Lebanese army in the south.

Window for Israel

President Bush himself talked about the role of Syria - in an unguarded moment at the G8 summit - when he spoke to UK Prime Minister Tony Blair without knowing that microphones were live. He said: "What they [referring probably to the UN] need to do is to get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it's over."

Mr Bush also said that he was sending his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to the region "pretty soon".

The incentive for Hezbollah to agree to some understanding is that it will keep two hostages for which Israel might pay a high price one day

However, nothing is likely to happen for several days. The US is probably giving Israel a window in which to carry on with its campaign.

The Israelis therefore will probably continue their efforts to degrade Hezbollah. According to one Israel source, they have already hit about 30% of Hezbollah's long range rockets. Israel is also likely to go after the Hezbollah leadership. It cannot destroy Hezbollah but it can hurt it.

Hezbollah, of course, will not sit back and do nothing.

Part of a longer-term arrangement has been floated by both UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Tony Blair.

They have proposed that a multinational force be sent to southern Lebanon to oversee whatever new arrangement might be agreed.

There is already a 2,000-strong UN force in the area called the United National Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). This, however, simply serves as a monitoring group. Mr Annan and Mr Blair appear to have something stronger in mind.

Need for guarantees

One of Israel's demands will be to get Hezbollah pushed back from the border. It was the Hezbollah raid into Israel last week in which it captured two soldiers that sparked off the Israeli campaign.

An Israeli source told me: "This is really about making sure that Hezbollah does not have the ability to repeat what it did. We will have to achieve this through a variety of means, not just military. There will have to be deterrence and guarantees and physical distance.

"They have been right on the border with their watchtowers, monitoring what the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] are doing. This is our main goal. We were too complacent before."

The missing element from such a package is the issue of the captured soldiers.

This could be left for later. Both sides know that there have been exchanges in the past. But they also both know that this is not going to happen right now. Hezbollah would like to have an exchange in return for a ceasefire but Israel will not agree. But Israel might be able to negotiate later, arguing that the situation will have changed.

The incentive for Hezbollah to agree to some understanding is that it will keep two hostages for which Israel might pay a high price one day.

Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/5188340.stm

Published: 2006/07/17 15:58:39 GMT

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