Middle East crisis: Future scenarios
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

Now that the Rome conference on Lebanon has ended without a decisive move towards settling the conflict between Israel

and Hezbollah, it is worth looking at what might happen next.

DIPLOMATIC SETTLEMENT

There would be an agreement between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah to implement Security Council resolution

1559.

This resolution, passed in September 2004, called for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon and the extension of

Lebanese government authority to all parts of the country. Hezbollah would move out of south Lebanon and the Lebanese

army would move down to the border with Israel. The idea is that this would remove the source of conflict.

Both Israel and Hezbollah would accept a ceasefire and the agreement formalised in a new Security Council resolution.

In order to help the process, an international force would be deployed in the border area at least until the Lebanese army

arrived.

Getting agreement on the mandate, size and deployment of such a force is not going to be easy. It would replace an existing

UN force, Unifil, which has been monitoring events but not influencing them since 1978.

The Israelis might maintain a self-declared "buffer zone" for a time, but any settlement would have to see an Israeli

withdrawal.

Some kind of deal would be done to resolve the original reason for this war, the capture of two Israeli solders by

Hezbollah. Israel wants their unconditional release. Hezbollah says they were taken to be exchanged.

Lebanon also wants Israel to leave a strip of land known as the Shebaa Farms at the foot of Mount Hermon, but the UN has

ruled that this land belongs to Syria and that its future should be decided by Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

STALEMATE

Under this scenario, the Israeli military effort to remove Hezbollah fighters from south Lebanon gets bogged down and

Hezbollah refuses to pull back or reach any agreement with the Lebanese government.

Already the Israelis have found the going tougher than they might have expected. The terrain - mountainous, rocky, and full

of caves, gullies and ravines - is ideal guerrilla country and the Israelis cannot use their armoured forces there easily.

It is therefore conceivable that the Israelis will not achieve the decisive victory they seek.

If that happened, the fighting could go on indefinitely to a greater or lesser degree. Israeli bombing could continue further

north in an attempt to cut off Hezbollah reinforcements moving south.

Hezbollah could continue firing rockets from north of any Israeli-controlled zone.

The civilian suffering would go on and people might not be able to return to normal lives on both sides of the border.

Israel could establish control over a self-declared "buffer zone" along the border and just stay there. There would be

stalemate, with continuing confrontations and fire fights with the potential of the conflict erupting again at any time.

WIDER ISRAELI INVASION

In 1978, the Israelis invaded up to the Litani River some 20km (12 miles) north of the border and in 1982 they went all the

way to Beirut. They did not leave south Lebanon until 2000.

Their aim in those operations was to remove Palestinian fighters, from whom Hezbollah has taken over.

It is possible that the Israelis will decide to expand their currently quite limited ground attacks into the kind of big

operation carried out in 1978. An attack on Tyre on the coast would be considered as Hezbollah has been firing rockets

from around Tyre.

However, all this would leave Israel in occupation and under constant harassment and attack. It would not be the long-term

solution they seek. If they simply left again, Hezbollah would move back in.

THE CONFLICT SPREADS

This could happen if things go badly wrong.

The Lebanese government, product of an uneasy alliance between Lebanon's various populations, and in which Hezbollah sits

with reforming elements from the Cedar Revolution, has held together.

But it could fall apart if the pressure is not eased and some solution does not become apparent, especially to the suffering

of civilians.

Hezbollah's supporters, Syria and Iran, could get drawn in.

Syria which has lost power in Lebanon over the last couple of years could be tempted to regain influence there.

The sidelined issue of Iran's nuclear programme could come to the fore again and become a diplomatic and economic

confrontation with the West if tensions increased. The solution to the issue depends on understanding and confidence and

this has been badly damaged by this crisis.

Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/5217882.stm

Published: 2006/07/26 16:39:02 GMT

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